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AI Market Observatory

AI Market Trends

Compare companies by usage, users, customers, paid adoption and revenue for the same period.

Sources reviewed: · AGI Watch ↗

Company comparison

4 companies · Worldwide · Amounts in USD

Reported = company disclosure · External estimate = third-party measurement · Forecast = period projection or unit conversion · No data ≠ zero

Company trends share one scale across the full timeline. Switch measures or select a chart point to see that month’s values and evidence below.

Users

Monthly active users

Company colors · Dashed: forecast intervals · Select a point for that month’s company values and evidence

Users · 2025-08 – 2026-100504M1.01B1.51B2.02B2025-082025-112026-022026-042026-072026-10OpenAI · 2026-03 · ≈ 1.2B · ForecastOpenAI · 2026-04 · ≈ 1.2B · ForecastOpenAI · 2026-05 · ≈ 1.2B · ForecastOpenAI · 2026-06 · ≈ 1.2B · ForecastOpenAI · 2026-07 · ≈ 1.2B · ForecastOpenAI · 2026-08 · ≈ 1.33B · ForecastOpenAI · 2026-09 · ≈ 1.6B · ForecastOpenAI · 2026-10 · ≈ 1.87B · ForecastGoogle · 2025-10 · 650M+ · ReportedGoogle · 2025-11 · ≈ 650M · ForecastGoogle · 2025-12 · ≈ 650M · ForecastGoogle · 2026-01 · ≈ 650M · ForecastGoogle · 2026-02 · 750M+ · ReportedGoogle · 2026-03 · ≈ 775M · ForecastGoogle · 2026-04 · ≈ 800M · ForecastGoogle · 2026-05 · ≈ 825M · ForecastGoogle · 2026-06 · ≈ 850M · ForecastGoogle · 2026-07 · 950M · ReportedGoogle · 2026-08 · 1B+ · ReportedGoogle · 2026-09 · ≈ 1.05B · ForecastGoogle · 2026-10 · ≈ 1.1B · Forecast

Select a point to see its company, month and value.

2026-10 · Legend and cards show this month. Selecting a point keeps the full timeline.

Usage currently means web-visit share (excluding apps and APIs). Users are MAU; customers are businesses. Paid adoption identifies subscribers versus seats. Revenue is company-wide monthly pace, not a finalized monthly result.

Forecast method and data coverage
  • With two or more observations through the selected month, extend the monthly change between the latest two. With one, assume zero growth. No numbers are generated without evidence or before the first observation.
  • Weekly users assume a 75% WAU/MAU ratio, not a measured ratio. Annualized revenue is divided by 12. Projections use the numeric floor of “more than” disclosures, so forecasts are not guaranteed lower bounds.
  • Past months are reconstructed from the observation periods in today’s dataset, not solely information known at the time. Observations later than the target month are excluded.
  • This simple projection model is not a validated market forecast. Older or rapidly growing inputs increase uncertainty. Shares are bounded to 0–100%, other values to zero or above; gross/net revenue accounting is not adjusted.
  • Missing cells reflect gaps in this dataset. People use multiple services, so these values are not summed into market size or market share.

Company details

2026-10 · The same period and values as the charts, with forecast evidence

ChatGPT

OpenAI

Usage and subscriptions cover ChatGPT; businesses are organizations reached, not necessarily paid contracts; revenue covers OpenAI including API sales. Monthly users assume a 75% WAU/MAU ratio.

Usage Monthly web-visit share
≈ 53.5% Forecast
Source period: 2026-08 Source

Latest two points’ monthly change extended by 2 months

Users Monthly active users
≈ 1.87B Forecast
Source period: 2026-09 Source

Latest two points’ monthly change extended by 1 months · WAU ÷ 0.75

Customers Business customers
≈ 2.5M Forecast
Source period: 2026-09 Source

One observation · zero growth assumed for 1 months

Paid adoption Subscribers / paid seats
≈ 50M Forecast subscribers
Source period: 2026-03 Source

One observation · zero growth assumed for 7 months · Calculated from the reported lower-bound figure · Older evidence, high uncertainty

Revenue Monthly revenue pace · USD
≈ US$2B Forecast
Source period: 2026-03 Source

One observation · zero growth assumed for 7 months · Older evidence, high uncertainty

Observation history & sources

Gemini app / Gemini Enterprise

Google

Users cover the Gemini app; customers and paid seats cover Gemini Enterprise. All-Google revenue and Search users are excluded; comparable AI-only revenue is unavailable.

Usage Monthly web-visit share
No data Insufficient evidence

No observations on or before the selected month.

Users Monthly active users
≈ 1.1B Forecast
Source period: 2026-08 Source

Latest two points’ monthly change extended by 2 months · Calculated from the reported lower-bound figure

Customers Business customers
≈ 2.8K Forecast
Source period: 2026-02 Source

One observation · zero growth assumed for 8 months · Calculated from the reported lower-bound figure · Older evidence, high uncertainty

Paid adoption Subscribers / paid seats
≈ 8M Forecast enterprise paid seats
Source period: 2026-02 Source

One observation · zero growth assumed for 8 months · Calculated from the reported lower-bound figure · Older evidence, high uncertainty

Revenue Monthly revenue pace · USD
No data Insufficient evidence

No observations on or before the selected month.

Observation history & sources

Claude

Anthropic

Usage is Claude web-visit share; customers and revenue cover Anthropic. Annualized revenue is divided by 12 for monthly pace.

Usage Monthly web-visit share
≈ 10.9% Forecast
Source period: 2026-08 Source

Latest two points’ monthly change extended by 2 months

Users Monthly active users
No data Insufficient evidence

No observations on or before the selected month.

Customers Business customers
≈ 300K Forecast
Source period: 2025-10 Source

One observation · zero growth assumed for 12 months · Calculated from the reported lower-bound figure · Older evidence, high uncertainty

Paid adoption Subscribers / paid seats
No data Insufficient evidence subscribers

No observations on or before the selected month.

Revenue Monthly revenue pace · USD
≈ US$11B Forecast
Source period: 2026-05 Source

Latest two points’ monthly change extended by 5 months · Annualized ÷ 12 · Calculated from the reported lower-bound figure · Older evidence, high uncertainty

Observation history & sources

Microsoft 365 Copilot

Microsoft

Tracks Microsoft 365 Copilot paid seats, distinct from business customers or active users. Total Microsoft revenue is excluded.

Usage Monthly web-visit share
No data Insufficient evidence

No observations on or before the selected month.

Users Monthly active users
No data Insufficient evidence

No observations on or before the selected month.

Customers Business customers
No data Insufficient evidence

No observations on or before the selected month.

Paid adoption Subscribers / paid seats
≈ 40M Forecast paid seats
Source period: 2026-07 Source

Latest two points’ monthly change extended by 3 months · Calculated from the reported lower-bound figure · Older evidence, high uncertainty

Revenue Monthly revenue pace · USD
No data Insufficient evidence

No observations on or before the selected month.

Observation history & sources

Share a source or correction →

Data & tracking sources

26 verified observations · Original periods and units retained · Forecasts calculated separately

  • Epoch AI — Public revenue and usage CSVs. Collected originals are archived; disclosure scope and confidence are reviewed. Josh You, John Croxton, Venkat Somala, Yafah Edelman · CC BY
  • Similarweb — Estimated web traffic. Detailed history/API access depends on plans and data credits.
  • Sensor Tower / a16z — Supplemental app usage and consumer-payment panels. U.S. payment panels and app metrics have different coverage from worldwide revenue or users.
  • OpenRouter — API token usage on its platform, rather than whole-market share. The data API requires a key.

JSON ↓ · CSV ↓ · Download reviewed raw observations